2026 NCAA March Madness Bracket Guide: 100,000 Simulations, Best Picks, Sleepers & Upsets

We simulated the 2026 NCAA Tournament 100,000 times to find the smartest bracket picks. See why Duke leads the title odds, which underdogs can bust brackets, and the must-know upset picks before filling out your March Madness bracket.

March 19, 2026•53 min read

Overview

The Study

A friend asked me to join a bracket competition. I don't follow college basketball outside of the NBA Draft, so I passed. A few days later it hit me: why not build a program to fill it out?

The program simulated the entire tournament 100,000 times using real data on every team. Defense, offense, rebounding, clutch performance, pace, injuries, and more. The percentage next to each team is how often they won when we ran it all the way through.

Think of it like a weather forecast. The simulation percentage is the chance of rain. The bracket pick is us saying bring an umbrella. Same data, two different ways of reading it. When they point in different directions, that is where the outcome is genuinely up for debate.

Methodology

How the Model Works

The model grades every team on what actually wins in March: defense, rebounding, clutch performance, scoring, pace, and experience. Each gets weighted based on how much it matters at that stage of the tournament. Defense carries the most weight and gets heavier the further it goes.

Defense & Offense

Defense is the single most important factor in this model and it gets more weight every round. Offense matters, but teams that cannot stop anyone rarely survive the second weekend.

Turnovers & Three-Point Rate

Teams that force turnovers are the biggest threat to upset a favorite in the first round. Three-point shooting matters too. A team that lives behind the arc against a defense that gives up threes is a dangerous matchup.

Rebounding, Clutch & Experience

Grabbing missed shots, winning close games, and tournament experience all grow in importance as the rounds get tighter. By the second weekend, almost every game comes down to the wire.

Pace, Recent Form & Injuries

Slow games are tighter. Fast games are less predictable. Recent performance shows which teams are peaking. Every injury is already factored in so what you see is what is actually on the floor.

The first round also factors in 40 years of tournament history. A 1 seed beating a 16 seed is so predictable that the model leans on that pattern. An 8 vs 9 game is close enough that the current season's numbers take over completely. History gets less say when the data has a strong opinion of its own.

Projections

Simulation Results

After 100,000 simulated tournaments, three regions produced clear frontrunners. Duke comes out of the East. Gonzaga edges Arizona in the West. Iowa State edges Michigan in the Midwest. The South is the one region without a clear answer. Florida has the higher simulation odds but the gap between them and Houston is the narrowest of any region. Duke has the highest overall score in the entire field and wins the championship.

East · Final Four

DukeFF: 18.3%

UConnFF: 10.6%

St. John'sFF: 9.2%

South · Final Four

FloridaFF: 11.8%

HoustonFF: 10.8%

IllinoisFF: 4.4%

★ Projected Champion

Duke

11.5% champ

over Iowa State
in championship

West · Final Four

GonzagaFF: 15.0%

ArizonaFF: 11.5%

PurdueFF: 7.4%

Midwest · Final Four

Iowa StateFF: 14.3%

MichiganFF: 11.8%

VirginiaFF: 8.2%

The model gives every one of these teams a fighting chance at making the Sweet 16. Check them against your picks before you lock anything in.

East · Round of 32

South FloridaR32: 27.6%

TCUR32: 15.9%

South · Round of 32

McNeeseR32: 26.7%

IowaR32: 18.2%

⚠ Bracket Busters

VCU

11 Seed · South · R32: 25.2%

15 years ago VCU made the Final Four as an 11-seed. They are back as an 11-seed, and the simulation picks them over North Carolina.

West · Round of 32

Utah StateR32: 31.1%

High PointR32: 30.0%

Midwest · Round of 32

GeorgiaR32: 23.2%

Santa ClaraR32: 21.9%

Every team with a 10% or better chance of reaching the Sweet 16 is included below. The brighter the cell, the better that team ranks in that specific round compared to everyone else.

S16 E8 FF Champ Brighter = higher rank within that column

Team	R64%	R32%	S16%	E8% ↓	FF%	Champ%
Duke1 East	90.8%	68.2%	44.1%	29.1%	18.3%	11.5%
Iowa State2 Midwest	83.3%	58.7%	38.3%	24.8%	14.3%	8.7%
Gonzaga3 West	84.3%	61.0%	41.1%	24.6%	15.0%	8.2%
Florida1 South	92.2%	62.8%	38.1%	22.1%	11.8%	5.9%
Michigan1 Midwest	88.3%	56.5%	37.4%	21.1%	11.8%	6.8%
Houston2 South	83.3%	50.9%	33.2%	19.4%	10.8%	5.7%
UConn2 East	85.8%	55.2%	35.8%	18.8%	10.6%	5.9%
Arizona1 West	88.9%	47.6%	30.6%	18.4%	11.5%	6.5%
St. John's5 East	74.4%	50.4%	26.8%	16.3%	9.2%	5.2%
Virginia3 Midwest	81.4%	53.4%	27.2%	16.1%	8.2%	4.3%
Purdue2 West	92.5%	56.9%	27.4%	14.0%	7.4%	3.5%
Illinois3 South	75.5%	44.4%	20.5%	9.8%	4.4%	1.8%
Utah State9 West	59.0%	31.1%	18.5%	9.5%	4.9%	2.2%
Nebraska4 South	66.0%	34.7%	17.1%	8.9%	4.2%	1.8%

Results

Contender Profiles

Nine teams finished above 5% championship odds across 100,000 simulations. Click any card to see why the data picked them and where they are most likely to fall short.

Duke Blue Devils

East Region · ACC · KenPom #1

NC: 11.5% ▼

KenPom Adj-O125.9

KenPom Adj-D85.8

Opp FG%39.2%

OREB%36.5%

3PT%44.3%

Pace65.4

Clutch%71.4%

R64

90.8%

R32

68.2%

S16

44.1%

29.1%

18.3%

Duke has the best defense in the entire tournament and it is not close. They hold opponents to 39.2% shooting, limit second chances, and do it against real competition all season. The defense is what separates them from every other contender. The offense keeps pace. They shoot 44.3% from three and crash the offensive glass at 36.5%, which means when shots miss they get them back. Both ends of the floor are running at a level no other team in this field matches at the same time. Duke is the model's pick to win the championship. No other team in the field does both ends this well across all six rounds.

Iowa State Cyclones

Midwest Region · Big 12 · KenPom #6

NC: 8.7% ▼

KenPom Adj-D91.4

KenPom Adj-O123.8

Pace66.6

Clutch%80.0%

OREB%33.0%

Opp FG%42.6%

R64

83.3%

R32

58.7%

S16

38.3%

24.8%

14.3%

Iowa State's case starts with two things the model weights heavily in late rounds: elite defense and an 80% clutch rating, the highest of any contender. They win close games at a rate almost no one else here can match and they slow the game down enough to make every opponent uncomfortable. The one concern is that opponents shoot 42.6% against them, which is higher than most elite defenses in the field. If a team gets hot from outside, that is where it shows up. Everything else about Iowa State points toward a deep run. Iowa State is the model's runner-up. Picking them to win the championship is fully supported by the data.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

West Region · WCC · KenPom #10

NC: 8.2% ▼

KenPom Adj-O119.2

KenPom Adj-D92.7

Opp FG%39.5%

OREB%34.2%

Clutch%100%

Pace68.6

R64

84.3%

R32

61.0%

S16

41.1%

24.6%

15.0%

Gonzaga's entire case is one number: 100% clutch performance. Every close game they played this season, they won. Every single one. The model rewards that heavily in late rounds when every game is tight, which is why Gonzaga keeps showing up deep despite not being a top-four team on paper. Their defense also holds opponents to 39.5% shooting, which is better than their overall defensive rating suggests. The clutch factor and the defensive ceiling compound together as the rounds go on. Gonzaga is the sleeper. Not the most talented team in the field. Just the one that has never lost a close game.

Michigan Wolverines

Midwest Region · Big Ten · KenPom #3

NC: 6.8% ▼

KenPom Adj-O125.6

KenPom Adj-D88.8

OREB%34.5%

Opp FG%38.4%

3PT%41.7%

Pace71.0

R64

88.3%

R32

56.5%

S16

37.4%

21.1%

11.8%

Michigan has the second-best defense in the entire tournament behind only Duke. They limit shots and they limit makes. Their offense is just as strong, putting them among the top teams in the field on both ends at the same time. The model has them falling short in the Elite Eight despite their talent. Their path through the Midwest is contested from the start, with real threats in the first weekend before they even reach the later rounds. Michigan is a legitimate contender. The model picks against them late, but they win that game nearly half the time in the simulation.

Arizona Wildcats

West Region · Big 12 · KenPom #2

NC: 6.5% ▼

KenPom Adj-O127.7

KenPom Adj-D90.1

OREB%38.1%

Opp FG%39.2%

Clutch%71.4%

Pace69.8

R64

88.9%

R32

47.6%

S16

30.6%

18.4%

11.5%

Arizona has the highest offensive rating in the entire tournament. They score at will, defend well, and grab offensive rebounds at one of the best rates in the field. On paper they look like a title team. The model has them losing in the Elite Eight in a near coin flip. Their first weekend is also contested, with real threats before they even get to the second weekend. Picking Arizona to the Final Four is the most defensible pick against this bracket. Their offense alone is the argument.

Florida Gators

South Region · SEC · KenPom #4

NC: 5.9% ▼

KenPom Adj-O125.5

KenPom Adj-D91.8

OREB%43.2%

Opp FG%40.8%

3PT%37.1%

Pace70.6

R64

92.2%

R32

62.8%

S16

38.1%

22.1%

11.8%

Florida crashes the offensive glass better than almost anyone in the field. They get second chances on nearly every other missed shot, and they do it against a schedule that was one of the toughest in the country. Their offense and defense are both elite. Their pace is the one thing that works against them. They play fast, and fast teams create more unpredictable games. The simulation and bracket split on their Sweet 16 game, which is the clearest place to deviate from the bracket pick if you trust Florida. Florida is a legitimate title contender. Their rebounding and efficiency give them a real ceiling. The pace just makes the road bumpier than it needs to be.

UConn Huskies

East Region · Big East · KenPom #11

NC: 5.9% ▼

KenPom Adj-O121.9

KenPom Adj-D94.0

Opp FG%40.2%

OREB%33.7%

Clutch%88.9%

Pace64.5

R64

85.8%

R32

55.2%

S16

35.8%

18.8%

10.6%

UConn wins close games at an 88.9% rate, second only to Gonzaga in the entire field. When a game comes down to the final possessions, UConn closes. In a tournament where every game from the Sweet 16 on is tight, that is worth more than their seed suggests. They play slowly and deliberately, which keeps games in their comfort zone. Their path through the East is genuinely tough from the first round onward, but their clutch rating keeps them alive in every simulation where the games stay close. UConn belongs in the conversation. In 10.6% of simulated runs they make a deep run. That path is real and the data backs it up.

Houston Cougars

South Region · Big 12 · KenPom #5

NC: 5.7% ▼

KenPom Adj-D91.5

KenPom Adj-O124.8

Pace63.3

Opp FG%40.0%

OREB%34.4%

Clutch%42.9%

R64

83.3%

R32

50.9%

S16

33.2%

19.4%

10.8%

Houston plays the fewest possessions per game of any team in the tournament. Every game they play is slower than their opponent is used to, which benefits the better defensive team. Houston's defense is elite and their score is third in the entire field. Their entire case is built on stopping people and grinding games down. Not on scoring outbursts, not on three-point shooting. They make every game ugly and they are built for ugly. Every round of their path through the South is earned, not given. Houston in the Final Four is the model rewarding the best defense in a region that fights back at every step. If possessions stay low and their defense holds, they belong there. If an opponent scores early and pushes tempo, there is no gear to match it.

St. John's Red Storm

East Region · Big East · KenPom #17

NC: 5.2% ▼

KenPom Adj-O120.0

KenPom Adj-D94.2

Opp FG%42.1%

OREB%33.5%

Clutch%83.3%

Pace69.6

R64

74.4%

R32

50.4%

S16

26.8%

16.3%

9.2%

St. John's is a 5-seed with a 5.2% title shot and it comes down to one thing: they win close games 83.3% of the time, third best in the entire field. In a tournament where every game from the Sweet 16 on comes down to the final possessions, that matters more than seeding. The model sends them past Kansas in the second round because their overall profile is significantly stronger. They grab more offensive rebounds, they win close games at a higher rate, and they beat Kansas in the regular season. They earn every win in this bracket rather than cruise through it. St. John's is the most accessible upset pick in the bracket. Real enough to build around. Surprising enough to win a pool outright.

Bracket Guide

Games to Watch, Upsets & Close Calls

Every game below was flagged as close or as an upset pick. The bracket pick is the model's single best answer. The simulation odds show how often each team won across 100,000 runs. The highlighted percentage is the team the simulation favors. Expand any row to see why.

Bracket Pick: Upset — lower seed wins Bracket Pick: Coin Flip — under 55% either way Bracket Pick: Watch — favorite shaky Highlighted % = simulation favorite

8VillanovavsUtah State9

Upset

39.7%/60.3%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Villanova	99.6	118.9	65.2	30.0%	277.6	+10.3	+8.3	0
Utah State	101.4	122.2	67.7	31.1%	347.5	+7.2	+12.1	4

Utah State scores better, wins close games at a high rate, and came into the tournament on a winning streak after beating the last three teams that had previously beaten them. Villanova shoots a lot of threes but Utah State is the stronger team overall when the full picture is added up. The model and simulation both land on Utah State at 60%. This is one of the more confident first-round calls on the board. Utah State is the pick. Both outputs agree. This is not a game to overthink.

8GeorgiavsSaint Louis9

Watch

56.4%/43.6%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Georgia	104.2	124.7	71.4	32.9%	413.1	+10.8	+10.5	0
Saint Louis	101.2	119.5	71.0	29.3%	437.1	+1.0	+17.7	0

Georgia scores at a high level and played a much tougher schedule than Saint Louis. What makes this worth watching is that Saint Louis is not a typical 9-seed. They outscored opponents by the best margin of any 9-seed in the field and they defend better than Georgia on paper. Georgia's scoring and schedule edge hold up when everything is added up, which is why the model lands on them at 56%. Saint Louis's defense is the one thing that keeps this from being a comfortable call. Georgia is the pick. Saint Louis's defense is legitimate and this will be closer than the seeding suggests.

8Ohio StatevsTCU9

Upset

44.4%/55.6%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Ohio State	102.0	124.0	66.1	27.9%	229.1	+13.7	+12.2	0
TCU	97.8	115.3	67.7	32.3%	244.9	+11.0	+6.9	0

TCU defends better than Ohio State, and defense is what this model rewards most in the first round. Ohio State scores well and that keeps the margin tighter than you might expect, but TCU's defensive edge is the most important number in this game. Both outputs agree on TCU at 56%. Ohio State's offense earns them real respect but it is not enough to overcome the gap on the other end. TCU is the pick. One of the more confident first-round calls in the East.

8ClemsonvsIowa9

Upset

47.9%/52.1%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Clemson	95.8	115.3	64.3	26.4%	254.3	+10.5	+9.9	0
Iowa	99.3	121.7	63.0	28.2%	357.5	+11.4	+7.9	0

Clemson defends better. Iowa scores better and forces more turnovers. Neither team has a clear edge when everything is added up, which is exactly what a 52/48 split tells you. The model barely lands on Iowa. Both teams have a genuine case and this is one you can flip based on your own read. Iowa is the pick. Go with Clemson and the data does not call you wrong.

7UCLAvsUCF10

Watch

57.5%/42.5%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
UCLA	102.0	123.5	64.7	28.9%	254.1	+12.2	+11.1	0
UCF	105.4	120.4	69.2	32.7%	195.3	+11.9	+8.0	0

UCLA has the stronger overall profile, a tougher schedule, and a better offense. UCF plays faster and grabs more offensive rebounds, which creates unpredictability. Faster games are less predictable and that works in UCF's favor as the lower seed. UCLA is the pick at 57.5%, but the pace gap is a real structural reason to consider UCF if you want to go against the model somewhere in the first round. UCLA is the pick. UCF's pace makes this worth watching.

7KentuckyvsSanta Clara10

Upset

37.3%/62.7%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Kentucky	98.5	120.2	68.4	32.5%	287.6	+15.9	+9.1	0
Santa Clara	104.2	123.6	69.2	35.0%	342.8	+6.0	+11.4	0

Santa Clara scores better than Kentucky and grabs more offensive rebounds. Kentucky played a much tougher schedule, but Santa Clara's profile is stronger across the things the model weights most in the first round. The model lands on Santa Clara at 63%. Almost every public bracket will default to Kentucky as the 7-seed. That makes this one of the best places to separate from the field and pick up real value in a pool. Santa Clara is the pick. Both outputs agree. One of the best upset calls in the first round.

7St. Mary'svsTexas A&M10

Watch

53.9%/46.1%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Saint Mary's	97.1	120.2	65.2	36.5%	283.4	+5.0	+11.2	0
Texas A&M	101.1	119.7	70.5	29.8%	328.1	+11.1	+9.3	0

Saint Mary's defends better than Texas A&M and grabs offensive rebounds at a much higher rate. Texas A&M played a tougher schedule and plays faster, which creates enough uncertainty to keep this close. Saint Mary's is the pick at 54%, but if Texas A&M gets out fast and pushes the pace in the first half, this game can flip. Watch the first ten minutes. Saint Mary's is the pick. Narrow enough that Texas A&M's pace makes this worth watching early.

7Miami FLvsMissouri10

Watch

51.6%/48.4%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Miami FL	100.7	121.4	67.6	34.2%	239.4	+8.0	+10.5	0
Missouri	104.1	119.5	66.2	32.7%	272.3	+11.5	+7.9	0

Miami has a slightly stronger overall profile and grabs more offensive rebounds. Missouri shoots more threes and played a comparable schedule. Neither team has a meaningful edge when everything is added up. The simulation gives Miami 51.6%, the second-thinnest margin in the entire first round. This is as close to a true coin flip as this bracket has. Miami is the pick by the narrowest margin. Pick Missouri and the data does not call you wrong.

6N. CarolinavsVCU11

Upset

44.0%/56.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
N. Carolina	100.1	119.6	68.0	29.2%	308.8	+11.5	+8.4	0
VCU	102.7	119.8	68.5	31.3%	299.2	+3.4	+10.0	6

VCU grabs more offensive rebounds than North Carolina and came into the tournament on a six-game winning streak. North Carolina played a tougher schedule and has a better scoring margin, but VCU's rebounding edge and recent form are what tip the model to the 11-seed at 56%. Most brackets will automatically take the 6-seed here. That makes this one of the highest-leverage calls in the South for anyone trying to win a pool. VCU is the pick. Both outputs agree. Take the 11-seed with confidence.

6LouisvillevsUSF11

Upset

42.0%/58.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Louisville	98.1	121.0	69.7	31.6%	307.0	+12.6	+12.5	0
South Florida	101.0	117.3	71.5	35.6%	318.7	+3.0	+12.2	11

South Florida came in on an 11-game winning streak and grabs offensive rebounds at a much higher rate than Louisville. Louisville has a better scoring margin overall, but South Florida's rebounding edge and momentum are what the model rewards here. The model and simulation both land on South Florida at 58%. One of the more confident upset calls in the first round. South Florida is the pick. The 11-game streak combined with a clear rebounding advantage makes this a strong call.

5VanderbiltvsMcNeese12

Upset

45.0%/55.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Vanderbilt	99.3	126.8	68.9	29.0%	337.2	+14.6	+12.0	0
McNeese	101.8	114.3	66.2	33.6%	307.9	-1.8	+13.5	10

McNeese came in on a 10-game winning streak, slows games down, and forces turnovers at a high rate. Vanderbilt has one of the better offensive ratings in the field, but McNeese's pace and clutch performance give them the edge when the game tightens up. The concern with McNeese is that they have not played anywhere near this level of competition. They have the profile to pull this off, but this is the biggest test they have seen. McNeese is the pick. The most interesting upset in the bracket. Both outputs agree at 55%.

5Texas TechvsAkron12

Coin Flip

50.0%/50.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Texas Tech	97.9	121.3	66.2	32.3%	321.4	+15.6	+11.5	0
Akron	106.1	118.8	70.3	32.7%	341.2	-3.7	+7.2	0

Texas Tech defends better than Akron and played a significantly tougher schedule. Akron shoots more threes and plays faster, which creates just enough randomness to cancel out Texas Tech's structural advantage. The simulation lands at exactly 50/50. The model gives Texas Tech the pick based on their stronger schedule and defense, but the simulation has no opinion. This is genuinely anyone's game. Texas Tech is the bracket pick. The simulation says flip a coin. Trust your gut here.

5WisconsinvsHigh Point12

Upset

45.0%/55.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Wisconsin	100.8	124.9	68.8	27.3%	393.1	+13.9	+10.4	0
High Point	108.6	117.0	69.9	30.7%	309.6	-9.2	+8.7	0

High Point wins close games at an 80% rate and plays at a pace that keeps things tight. Wisconsin has a higher offensive rating and one of the best three-point volumes in the entire field. High Point's clutch factor and pace profile tip the model to the 12-seed at 55%. High Point has not played competition at this level. Wisconsin's three-point shooting is the most dangerous weapon they will face. If Wisconsin gets hot from outside early, the math changes quickly. High Point is the pick. Watch the first five minutes. If Wisconsin's threes are falling early, all bets are off.

4ArkansasvsHawaii13

Watch

58.0%/42.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Arkansas	101.4	127.2	71.0	30.2%	322.9	+14.9	+15.2	5
Hawaii	101.2	107.1	69.7	29.1%	166.9	-3.5	+9.8	2

Arkansas has one of the highest offensive ratings in the entire tournament and played one of the toughest schedules in the field. Hawaii defends better than most 13-seeds, which is why this is flagged as a watch game rather than a safe pick. Arkansas is the pick at 58%, but Hawaii gives up a 42% upset probability in the simulation. That is unusually high for a 13-seed. If you are looking for a 13-seed upset anywhere in the bracket, this is your most defensible option. Take Arkansas. But if you want a 13-seed upset pick, Hawaii is the most defensible one here.

4KansasvsCal Baptist13

Watch

58.0%/42.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Kansas	93.9	118.3	67.7	28.0%	212.6	+16.9	+8.0	0
Cal Baptist	101.9	107.9	65.8	36.0%	193.2	-1.9	+4.2	0

Kansas defends well and played one of the toughest schedules in the East. Cal Baptist's offensive rebounding rate is 8 points higher than Kansas's, which means they generate a lot of second-chance opportunities when shots miss. The model flags this as closer than the seeding suggests. Kansas is the pick at 58%, but the seeding says blowout and the model says watch the glass. If Cal Baptist controls the offensive boards early, this game will not feel like a 4 vs 13. Kansas is the pick. Cal Baptist's rebounding is the one thing that can make this uncomfortable.

4AlabamavsHofstra13

Watch

58.0%/42.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Alabama	103.1	128.2	73.1	29.3%	421.8	+16.7	+12.8	0
Hofstra	105.1	114.6	64.7	33.6%	328.4	-0.9	+9.1	0

Alabama is one of the highest-scoring teams in the tournament and lives behind the three-point line. Their defense is the soft spot. Hofstra plays slower and crashes the offensive glass harder, which is exactly how a lower seed keeps a high-scoring team from running away with a game. Alabama played a tougher schedule and is clearly the better team. The model flags this as closer than the seeding suggests, similar to the other 4-vs-13 watch games in this bracket. Alabama is the pick. If Hofstra controls the pace and the glass early, this gets uncomfortable fast.

4KansasvsSt. John's5

Upset

32.8%/67.2%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Kansas	93.9	118.3	67.6	28.0%	212.6	+16.9	+8.0	0
St. John's	94.2	120.1	69.6	33.5%	331.2	+11.5	+11.5	6

St. John's wins close games at 83%, grabs more offensive rebounds than Kansas, and already beat them in the regular season. Kansas defends well and played a tough schedule, but St. John's overall profile is significantly stronger across the board. Both outputs agree on St. John's at 67%. That is a wide margin for a second-round game and one of the cleaner calls in the East. St. John's is the pick. Not close. Take the 5-seed with confidence.

4AlabamavsTexas Tech5

Upset

46.8%/53.2%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Alabama	103.1	128.2	73.1	29.3%	421.8	+16.7	+12.8	0
Texas Tech	97.9	121.3	66.2	32.3%	321.4	+15.6	+11.5	0

Texas Tech defends better than Alabama and that is what tips the model their way at 53%. Alabama has one of the highest offensive ratings in the field and plays the fastest pace in the Midwest region, which makes this far closer than the seeds suggest. If Alabama pushes pace and their threes start falling early, this game flips quickly. Texas Tech's edge is real but not comfortable. Texas Tech is the pick on defense. Watch how fast Alabama plays in the first half.

2HoustonvsSt. Mary's7

Watch

59.3%/40.7%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Houston	91.5	124.8	63.3	34.4%	222.9	+13.6	+14.6	0
Saint Mary's	97.1	120.2	65.2	36.5%	283.4	+5.0	+11.2	0

Houston defends at an elite level and plays the slowest pace in the entire tournament, which grinds every game into their comfort zone. Saint Mary's has not faced a defense this strong all season. Houston is the pick at 59%. Saint Mary's grabs offensive rebounds at a higher rate than Houston, which is the one structural weapon that keeps them in this game. If they can control the glass and slow things down even further, the seeding will not tell the whole story. Houston is the pick. If Saint Mary's crashes the glass and keeps it ugly, this gets closer than it looks.

1ArizonavsUtah State9

Watch

51.6%/48.4%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Arizona	90.1	127.7	69.8	38.1%	198.2	+14.9	+17.3	9
Utah State	101.4	122.2	67.7	31.1%	347.5	+7.2	+12.1	4

Arizona has the best offense in the tournament, defends well, and came in on a nine-game winning streak. Utah State just upset a favorite in the first round, shoots threes at one of the highest volumes in the field, and wins close games at nearly 90%. The simulation gives Arizona just 51.6%. Arizona grabs offensive rebounds at a much higher rate, which is what saves them if Utah State's threes stop falling. If they do not stop, Utah State can hang around long enough to make this one of the biggest upsets of the tournament. Arizona is the pick. The most dangerous second-round game for any 1-seed in the bracket. Watch Utah State's shooting in the first half.

3Michigan St.vsUSF11

Coin Flip

49.0%/51.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Michigan St.	94.0	122.0	66.1	37.1%	219.1	+13.7	+10.5	0
South Florida	101.0	117.3	71.5	35.6%	318.7	+3.0	+12.2	11

South Florida came in on an 11-game winning streak and keeps winning close games. Michigan State defends much better than South Florida and grabs more offensive rebounds. Michigan State's schedule was also significantly tougher. The streak tips the model to South Florida by the thinnest possible margin at 51%. Michigan State wins nearly half the time in the simulation and their defensive profile makes this a genuine toss-up. South Florida is the bracket pick. Michigan State's defense and rebounding make this anyone's game. Pick your gut.

3IllinoisvsVCU11

Watch

58.5%/41.5%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Illinois	99.1	131.2	65.6	38.4%	473.2	+13.6	+16.8	0
VCU	102.7	119.8	68.5	31.3%	299.2	+3.4	+10.0	6

Illinois is one of the highest-scoring teams still alive in the South and crashes the offensive glass at the highest rate of any team in their region. They played a much tougher schedule than VCU. Illinois is the pick at 58.5%. VCU forces turnovers at a high rate, which is exactly how an 11-seed keeps a game close against a team this talented. If Illinois gets sloppy with the ball, VCU can turn this into something real. Illinois is the pick. Comfortable if they protect the ball. VCU's press is the one thing that changes this game.

4NebraskavsMcNeese12

Watch

52.8%/47.2%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Nebraska	92.3	117.7	66.8	25.3%	212.4	+11.6	+10.9	0
McNeese	101.8	114.3	66.2	33.6%	307.9	-1.8	+13.5	10

Nebraska defends at an elite level and played a much stronger schedule than McNeese. McNeese came in on a 10-game winning streak, outscored opponents at a higher rate, and crashes the offensive glass significantly better than Nebraska. Nebraska is the bracket pick at 52.8%, the closest game in the South region's second round. McNeese's rebounding, momentum, and scoring margin make this one of the most volatile games of the weekend. Nebraska is the pick. Do not be surprised if McNeese is playing in the Sweet 16.

4ArkansasvsHigh Point12

Upset

45.1%/54.9%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Arkansas	101.4	127.2	71.0	30.2%	322.9	+14.9	+15.2	5
High Point	108.6	117.0	69.9	30.7%	309.6	-9.2	+8.7	0

High Point just upset a favorite in the first round and their clutch performance and recent form carry real weight here. Arkansas has one of the highest offensive ratings in the tournament and a significantly tougher schedule than High Point. High Point is the bracket pick at 55% because their clutch factor and momentum tip the model their way. High Point's defense is soft though, and Arkansas has the firepower to end this run if they stay focused for 40 minutes. High Point is the bracket pick. Arkansas's offense is the most dangerous thing they will see. This game turns on whether Arkansas can execute for a full game.

2PurduevsGonzaga3

Upset

37.2%/62.8%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Stretch
Purdue	100.5	131.6	64.4	35.0%	348.3	+15.9	+11.5	4
Gonzaga	92.7	119.2	68.6	34.2%	227.8	+5.9	+19.1	2

Gonzaga defends better than Purdue by a wide margin and wins every close game they play. Purdue has the highest offensive rating in the entire field. The model gives Gonzaga the edge at 63% because defense and clutch performance are what matter most at this stage. Purdue's offense is genuinely historic. If they can score fast and keep Gonzaga off balance, they have the firepower to flip this. Gonzaga's defense is what survives it. Gonzaga is the pick. Purdue has the offense to make this a game. Gonzaga has the defense to win it.

2Iowa StatevsVirginia3

Watch

59.0%/41.0%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Iowa State	91.4	123.8	66.6	33.0%	240.8	+12.4	+16.6	0
Virginia	95.8	122.5	65.8	37.0%	208.0	+9.9	+12.2	0

Iowa State defends better than Virginia, wins close games at 80%, and has the second-highest overall score in the entire field. Virginia grabs offensive rebounds at a higher rate, which is the most concrete argument for an upset here. Iowa State is the pick at 59%. If Virginia dominates the glass they can generate enough second chances to stay close, but Iowa State's clutch rating makes that very difficult to sustain over 40 minutes. Iowa State is the pick. Virginia's rebounding is the one thing worth watching. If they control the glass, this becomes a different game.

1FloridavsNebraska4

Watch

56.9%/43.1%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Florida	91.8	125.5	70.6	43.2%	236.1	+16.0	+14.7	0
Nebraska	92.3	117.7	66.8	25.3%	212.4	+11.6	+10.9	0

Florida scores well, crashes the offensive glass at one of the highest rates in the field, and played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Nebraska defends at an elite level and plays slower, which keeps this from being a comfortable call for anyone. The model lands on Florida at 57%. Nebraska's defense is what makes this worth watching. If they can slow Florida down and keep possessions limited, they have the profile to pull this off. The bracket and simulation both pick Florida, but Nebraska is the most defensible upset pick in the Sweet 16. Florida is the pick. Nebraska's defense makes this closer than the seeding suggests.

1DukevsSt. John's5

Watch

56.9%/43.1%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Duke	85.8	125.9	65.4	36.5%	227.8	+14.3	+19.1	11
St. John's	94.2	120.0	69.6	33.5%	331.2	+11.5	+11.5	6

Duke has the best defense in the tournament and the highest overall score in the field. St. John's wins close games at 83% and came in on a six-game winning streak. They generate three-point volume at a high rate and Duke's defense limits how many of those shots fall. Duke is the pick at 57%, but St. John's 43% upset chance is real. This is the best team in the bracket against a team built specifically to win games that come down to the wire. Duke is the pick. St. John's will make this go down to the final possession. Do not dismiss that 43%.

1MichiganvsIowa State2

Upset

45.9%/54.1%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Michigan	88.8	125.6	71.0	34.5%	327.6	+16.6	+17.6	0
Iowa State	91.4	123.8	66.6	33.0%	240.8	+12.4	+16.6	0

Michigan has the second-best defense in the tournament and an elite offense on the other end. Iowa State wins close games at 80%, the best clutch rating of any contender, and their overall profile edges Michigan's when everything is weighted together. Iowa State is the pick at 54%. Michigan wins this game nearly half the time in the simulation. Their talent is the legitimate argument against the pick. This is the most evenly matched Elite Eight game in the bracket. Iowa State is the pick. Michigan winning here is completely defensible. The data supports both outcomes at nearly equal weight.

1DukevsUConn2

Watch

56.8%/43.2%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Duke	85.8	125.9	65.4	36.5%	227.8	+14.3	+19.1	11
UConn	94.0	121.9	64.5	33.7%	225.8	+12.0	+12.3	0

Duke has the best defense in the tournament and the highest overall score in the field. UConn wins close games at nearly 89%, which is why this is a watch game rather than a foregone conclusion. UConn needs Duke to let this get close. Duke's defense makes that very hard to do. Duke is the pick at 57%. The cleaner of the two Elite Eight calls in the East. Duke is the pick. UConn's clutch factor is real but Duke's defense is the best in the field.

1FloridavsHouston2

Upset

48.2%/51.8%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Florida	91.8	125.5	70.6	43.2%	236.1	+16.0	+14.7	0
Houston	91.5	124.8	63.3	34.4%	222.9	+13.6	+14.6	0

Houston plays the slowest pace in the entire tournament and defends at an elite level. Florida grabs offensive rebounds on nearly every other missed shot, defends just as well, and scores at a higher rate. These two teams are nearly identical and the simulation reflects that at 51.8%, the thinnest Elite Eight margin in the guide. The bracket picks Houston because slow games favor the better defensive team and Houston controls pace better than anyone. Florida wins 48% of the time in the simulation. If you are going to deviate from one bracket pick in the entire guide, this is the game to do it. Houston is the bracket pick. Florida is the strongest case for a deviation in this entire guide.

1ArizonavsGonzaga3

Coin Flip

48.6%/51.4%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Arizona	90.1	127.7	69.8	38.1%	198.2	+14.9	+17.3	9
Gonzaga	92.7	119.2	68.6	34.2%	227.8	+5.9	+19.1	2

Arizona has the best offense in the tournament and a stronger overall profile than Gonzaga on paper. Gonzaga has won every close game they played all season. The Elite Eight is where clutch performance carries extra weight, and that tips the model to Gonzaga at 51.4%. Arizona wins 48.6% of the time in the simulation. Their offensive ceiling is the strongest argument for any team against any bracket pick in this guide. This is a coin flip with a very slight lean toward the team that never loses close games. Gonzaga is the pick. Picking Arizona here is completely defensible. This is where deviating from the bracket is most justified.

1DukevsHouston2

Watch

57.2%/42.8%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Duke	85.8	125.9	65.4	36.5%	227.8	+14.3	+19.1	11
Houston	91.5	124.8	63.3	34.4%	222.9	+13.6	+14.6	0

Duke has the best defense in the field and Houston has the best defense among everyone else. Houston plays the fewest possessions per game of any team in the tournament, which makes every game slower and tighter than Duke is used to. Duke's offense is efficient enough per possession to handle it. Houston wins 43% of the time in the simulation. This is not a blowout. It is a grind that Duke survives on the strength of their defense and rebounding. Houston is the most dangerous opponent they could draw at this stage. Duke is the pick. This will not feel comfortable. Houston makes nothing easy.

2Iowa StatevsGonzaga3

Coin Flip

50.8%/49.2%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Iowa State	91.4	123.8	66.6	33.0%	240.8	+12.4	+16.6	0
Gonzaga	92.7	119.2	68.6	34.2%	227.8	+5.9	+19.1	2

Iowa State has the stronger overall profile and edges Gonzaga in defense and overall score. Gonzaga just beat a 1-seed in the Elite Eight and has won every close game they played all season. Both teams can win this. The simulation lands at 50.8%, almost exactly a coin flip. There is no strong argument to be made in either direction. Iowa State gets the pick by the thinnest margin. Gonzaga winning 49% of the time means both picks are equally grounded in the data. Iowa State is the pick by a margin that barely counts. This is the one game in the guide where you should trust your gut over the model.

1DukevsIowa State2

Watch

53.6%/46.4%

▼

Team	Adj-D	Adj-O	Pace	OREB%	3PT Comp.	SOS	Net Rtg	Streak
Duke	85.8	125.9	65.4	36.5%	227.8	+14.3	+19.1	11
Iowa State	91.4	123.8	66.6	33.0%	240.8	+12.4	+16.6	0

Iowa State got here by winning every close game they played. Duke got here by being the best team in the field from start to finish. This is the one matchup where Iowa State's clutch factor runs into a team with a stronger profile across every metric that matters. Duke is the pick at 53.6%. Iowa State wins 46% of the time in the simulation. This is not a coronation. It is the two best teams in the bracket playing a close game that Duke wins at the end. Duke wins the championship. Iowa State nearly makes it wrong. Picking Iowa State here is fully supported by the data.

Limitations

What the Model Does Not Know

The model handles injuries, recent form, pace, and efficiency. It does not handle everything. It does not know which coach draws up the play that wins it in the final seconds, or which player is quietly not right heading into tip-off. It does not adjust for a zone defense a team has never seen before, foul trouble in the first half, or a lineup change made the night of the game. Those things matter enormously in March and no model captures all of them.

What this model gives you is a starting point built on a full season of real data from credible sources. The instincts, the film, and the gut feeling are yours to add. The model gives you the floor. You build up from there.

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