Every Favorite
Is Gone.
Now What?
All of the preseason favorites are out. The field that remains is full of second-year quarterbacks, winning streaks, and excellent defenses. Here's my picks for the 2026 NFL Playoffs.
The Chaos That Got Us Here
Every team you expected to be here is watching from home. The four biggest preseason favorites, the Lions, Chiefs, Commanders, and Bengals, all missed the field. What's left is stranger and more interesting than anything the preseason predictions offered.
Three second-year quarterbacks on rookie contracts arrived at the dance: Caleb Williams in Chicago, Drake Maye in New England, and Bo Nix in Denver. Sam Darnold signed with Seattle as a free agent and immediately picked up where he left off last season. Mac Jones filled in for San Francisco while Brock Purdy recovered from injury. The storylines write themselves.
Only six teams topped +100 point differential. Those six teams are your entire contender pool, and everyone else is playing for seeding at best.
Point differential cuts through lucky wins and fluky losses. It tells you what a team actually is across a full 17-game sample. The six teams above +100: Seattle, Los Angeles, New England, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Houston.
Strength of schedule filters it further. New England had the easiest path in the entire playoff field. Buffalo was second-easiest in the AFC. On the other end, Houston, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville all faced top-five hardest schedules. Winning ugly against hard opponents is worth more than winning clean against soft ones.
Turnover differential is the third lens, and it confirms what the other two already suggested. The top five in the league: Chicago (+22), Houston (+17), Jacksonville (+13), Pittsburgh (+12), and the Rams (+11).
Point differential, schedule difficulty, and turnover differential are three independent measures of actual quality. Most teams flash in one. These three show up in all of them.
NFC: Who Can Actually Win It
San Francisco went 6-1 after Purdy returned from injury. Christian McCaffrey closed the season with 1,202 rushing yards and 924 receiving yards, doing things no other back in the league can do. The 49ers open the playoffs against the defending champion Eagles, who went under .500 in the second half of the season.
Caleb Williams and the Bears' secondary are built for explosive swings, the kind of game that can be over in two possessions. Seattle is the NFC's top seed and won seven straight to close the season with the league's best defense.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards, averaging 105.5 yards per game with 79 first-down receptions. Seattle's defense allowed the fewest points per game in the league and ranked top five in interceptions. They enter as the most complete team in the NFC.
Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards. Puka Nacua led the league in receptions and yards per game. Davante Adams is expected back for the wildcard game against Carolina, and the Rams went 1-2 without him, which tells you exactly how important he is.
AFC: The Conference Nobody Predicted
Jacksonville acquired Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline, Indy lost Daniel Jones to injury, and Trevor Lawrence has been on another planet since Week 11. Under first-year head coach Liam Coen, Lawrence set career highs across the board. The Jags won 8 straight games to close the season, while averaging 30-plus points per game. That's not a hot streak; it's a statement.
Houston started 0-3. Let that sink in. A midseason switch to Woody Marks at running back changed the protection scheme around CJ Stroud, and the Texans finished 12-2 in their final 14 games. They now have the best defense in the league and played the hardest schedule in the AFC. Buffalo is the most dangerous offense left with Josh Allen and James Cook, but they also had the second easiest schedule of any AFC contender.
Since Week 11: 2nd in passing TDs (19), 5th in passing yards (2,009), 5th in yards per attempt (8.2). Career highs for Lawrence in rushing yards (359), rushing TDs (9), and rushing first downs (40). Won all 8 games averaging 30+ points.
Fewest yards allowed per game in the NFL. Second-fewest points allowed. The 9-game winning streak to close the season wasn't luck, it was a defense playing its best football against playoff-caliber opponents on the hardest schedule in the conference.
The Full Bracket Picks
One team ranks top-five in passing, top-five in turnovers, and played a top-five Strength of schedule. They are getting a key player back right before the playoffs start.
Houston is the best defensive team in the league, and they played the hardest schedule in the AFC. Jacksonville won 8 straight against with a quarterback who looks transformed. Buffalo is explosive, but their schedule was a gift. On the NFC side, only one team passes every single test.
Rams
Jaguars