The wrapping paper has been folded and stored. The leftover ham is gone. The calendar has turned, and the casual conversation has shifted from "What did you get for Christmas?" to something far harder to answer: "Who's going to the Super Bowl?"
This year, that question carries unusual weight. The NFL has spent seventeen weeks defying its own script. Preseason favorites like the Lions, Chiefs, Commanders, and Bengals find themselves out of contention while dominant performances have materialized from Los Angeles to Jacksonville.
Three second-year quarterbacks still on valuable rookie deals have elevated their franchises ahead of schedule. Caleb Williams in Chicago, Drake Maye in New England, and Bo Nix in Denver have delivered not just competence but heroism in late-game situations. Meanwhile, veterans like Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence have authored their own compelling chapters, and quarterbacks in unfamiliar uniforms have found new life. Sam Darnold has continued to revitalize his career after signing with Seattle in free agency, while Mac Jones has helped the 49ers win games during Brock Purdy's absence.
When the numbers are examined, a clearer picture emerges. Only six teams finished with a point differential exceeding one hundred points: the Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, and Texans. These franchises have not merely won but dominated. In a league where one-possession games often come down to luck, this kind of margin is the closest thing to certainty.
Strength of schedule adds crucial context to these performances. New England enjoyed the easiest path among playoff teams, followed by Buffalo, LA Chargers, San Francisco, Denver, Carolina, Seattle, Chicago, and Green Bay. On the opposite end, Houston, LA Rams, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville endured the most difficult schedules.
The overlap between dominant teams and smart teams becomes even more apparent when examining turnovers. Chicago leads the league with a plus-twenty-two turnover differential. Houston at plus-seventeen, Jacksonville at plus-thirteen, Pittsburgh at plus-twelve, and Los Angeles at plus-eleven follow. Three of those teams, the Texans, Jaguars, and Rams, sit among the six franchises with point differentials exceeding one hundred. The correlation is undeniable. Teams that protect the football and force mistakes are the teams that have separated themselves.
The NFC runs through the West, where three teams have positioned themselves differently. San Francisco is trying to assemble a healthy roster for a postseason run after finishing the season 6-1 following Brock Purdy's return. Christian McCaffery was the driving force behind the 49ers' success with 1,202 rushing yards and 924 receiving yards. He will look to carry this momentum during wildcard weekend against the defending champion Eagles, who have struggled in the second half of the season. I have the Bears beating the winner of that matchup and moving on to the NFC championship game. Caleb Williams and the Bears' secondary are an explosive pairing capable of delivering large swings that can change the momentum of a game within minutes.
Seattle is riding a seven-game winning streak and looking to solidify itself as a contender with Sam Darnold managing the offense. Seattle's success has been a masterclass in complementary football. Special teams and defense have supported their ground game and created the foundation for Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout season. Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards, averaging 105.5 yards per game and picking up 79 first downs through the air. The Seahawks defense allowed the fewest points per game in the league and is top five in interceptions, a combination that drives their sustained excellence.
The Rams have mirrored that dominance in what many thought would be Matthew Stafford's final season. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have worked together like thunder and lightning to propel Stafford into MVP conversations. Stafford led the NFL in passing yards this past season, 1,715 of which went to Nacua. Nacua led the league in receptions, receiving yards per game, and first down receptions. He was also third in yards after the catch with 666. Los Angeles has stumbled without Adams in recent weeks, dropping two of their last three games. Adams is set to return for the Rams' wildcard matchup against the Panthers, which should help the team regain momentum.
Jacksonville's rise tells a different story. A midseason trade for Jakobi Meyers added another weapon just as the Colts lost Daniel Jones to injury, which cleared the path in the AFC South. But their ascent is not merely circumstantial. Trevor Lawrence has undergone a transformation under coach Liam Coen.
Lawrence's ability to scramble outside of the pocket has taken him to the next level. He had a career-high 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. His ability to pick up first downs using his legs became evident from his 40 rushing first downs. Since Week 11, Lawrence ranks second in passing touchdowns with 19, fifth in passing yards with 2,009, and fifth in yards per attempt at 8.2. The Jaguars also won all eight games during that stretch, averaging over 30 points per game. A scorching pace that has turned them from playoff hopefuls into legitimate threats.
The Bills present a fascinating case. Josh Allen and James Cook form one of the most dangerous duos in the entire NFL, leading an offense that ranks fourth in yards per game and scoring. The defense is ranked seventh in yards allowed per game and twelfth in points allowed per game. Buffalo's ceiling remains as high as anyone's, even if their regular-season path has been slightly easier than Houston's or Jacksonville's.
Houston, Buffalo, and Jacksonville possess the defensive strength and offensive firepower to reach the AFC championship game. Houston led the league in yards allowed per game and allowed the second-fewest points to opponents. A midseason switch to Woody Marks at running back provided CJ Stroud with some extra pass protection and helped the team finish 12-2 after a 0-3 start, including a nine-game winning streak to end the season.
A showdown between the Texans' defense and either Josh Allen or Trevor Lawrence would be electric television. The convergence of strong defense, great turnover differential, and a battle-tested regular-season schedule makes the Texans legitimate contenders and a lock for the AFC championship game.
Three teams stand out as most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy. The Rams, Bills, and Jaguars possess elite units on both sides of the ball and quarterback play that can carry them through adversity. Buffalo's explosiveness makes them dangerous. But Jacksonville's eight straight wins with Lawrence playing the best football of his career feels like something more than momentum. It feels like an arrival at precisely the right time.
When the final whistle blows in February, my prediction is the Rams and Jaguars standing on the field, and Los Angeles calling themselves Super Bowl champs.