The Landscape
The preseason favorites including the Lions, Chiefs, Commanders, and Bengals all missed the playoffs. The field that remains is largely made up of teams that were not expected to be here.
Three second-year quarterbacks on rookie contracts had strong seasons: Caleb Williams in Chicago, Drake Maye in New England, and Bo Nix in Denver. Sam Darnold signed with Seattle as a free agent and helped the team go on a seven-game winning streak to close the season. Mac Jones stepped in for San Francisco while Brock Purdy recovered from injury. Veterans Matthew Stafford, Josh Allen, and Trevor Lawrence are the other key players still competing.
Strength of schedule is an important filter when reading these numbers. New England had the easiest path to the playoffs of any team in the field, followed by Buffalo. On the other end, Houston, the Rams, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Jacksonville all played among the five hardest schedules in the league. Winning with a difficult schedule carries more weight than the same record built against easier opponents.
The Turnover Edge
Turnover differential measures how often a team forces a turnover compared to how often they give one away. The top five in the league are Chicago (+22), Houston (+17), Jacksonville (+13), Pittsburgh (+12), and the Rams (+11). Houston, Jacksonville, and Los Angeles each rank in the top five in turnover differential, schedules difficulty, and point differential. That combination of metrics across three separate categories is what separates them from the rest of the field.
NFC Contenders
San Francisco went 6-1 after Brock Purdy returned from injury. Christian McCaffrey was the engine of the offense, finishing with 1,202 rushing yards and 924 receiving yards. The 49ers open the playoffs against the defending champion Eagles, who went under .500 in the second half of the season. Caleb Williams and the Bears' secondary are an explosive pairing capable of delivering large swings that can change the momentum of a game within minutes.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards, averaging 105.5 yards per game and recording 79 first down receptions. Seattle's defense allowed the fewest points per game in the league and ranked top five in interceptions. The Seahawks finished the regular season on a seven-game winning streak and enter the playoffs as the top seed in the NFC.
Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards with 1,715 of those yards going to Puka Nacua. Nacua led the league in receptions, receiving yards per game, and first down receptions, and ranked third in yards after the catch with 666 yards. Davante Adams missed the final weeks of the regular season and the Rams went 1-2 without him. Adams is expected back for the wildcard game against Carolina.
AFC Contenders
Jacksonville acquired Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline while Indianapolis lost Daniel Jones to injury, and the Jags have been hot since. Trevor Lawrence had a breakout season under first-year head coach Liam Coen, where he set career highs across the board. Buffalo's offense ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per game. Josh Allen and running back James Cook were the primary drivers. The defense finished seventh in yards allowed and twelfth in points allowed. The Bills had the second-easiest schedule of any AFC playoff team, behind only New England.
Career highs for Trevor Lawrence in rushing yards (359), rushing TDs (9), and rushing first downs (40). Since Week 11: he is 2nd in passing TDs (19), 5th in passing yards (2,009), 5th in yards per attempt (8.2). Won all 8 games in that stretch averaging 30+ points per game.
Houston had the fewest yards allowed per game and allowed the second-fewest points of any team. A midseason switch to Woody Marks at running back gave CJ Stroud better pass protection and helped stabilize the offense. The Texans finished 12-2 after opening 0-3 and closed the season on a 9 game winning streak.
Playoff Picks
The Prediction
Houston, Buffalo, and Jacksonville all have the defensive strength and offensive production to reach the AFC Championship. Houston is the best defensive team in the league and played the hardest schedule in the AFC. Buffalo is dangerous offensively but played a softer path to the playoffs. Jacksonville won eight straight games to close the season while facing one of the tougher remaining schedules in the conference. On the NFC side, the Rams have the most complete profile of any team in the bracket. They lead the league in passing, rank in the top five in turnover differential, and are getting a key player back at the right time.
The Super Bowl pick: Los Angeles over Jacksonville.